NEXT NUCLEAR DISASTER SCENARIO
Safe storage of ammunition and weaponry is a key element of military operations in the Ukraine-Russia war. While ‘safe storage’ may be an oxymoron in this context, it is nevertheless a strategic concern for ever more desperate military minds. ‘Safe storage’ in residential areas, hospitals, kindergartens, prisons and the like, is not a ‘safe’ option anymore as they will be targeted on both sides – although more so on the Ukrainian side. The next insane option seem to be the nuclear power stations dotted around the Ukraine, including the ones in the Russian occupied Donbass areas. Surely ‘they’ would not shell or fire missiles into a nuclear power station even if there is evidence that ammunitions and weaponry is stationed there? Ever since Chernobyl – both past and present – there emerges the spectre of the unspeakable. While Chernobyl was not under Russian attack directly – and has since been given back to the Ukrainians – there is a new threat emerging, namely for Europe’s largest nuclear power plant near Zaporizhzhia, now occupied by Russian forces. The Ukrainians accuse them of storing heavy weapons at the plant, thereby rendering it as a target. While the Ukrainian forces may not directly target the plant itself – for obvious reasons – a miscalculation on both sides can lead to nuclear disaster. An exploding munitions dump nearby can have the same consequences as a direct hit. The Russians may well figure that by shutting down the nuclear plant – without blowing it up – they will cut the electricity supply to areas not occupied by the Russians, thereby giving them a strategic advantage. As this scenario is already happening with one reactor being shut down due to a hit on nearby powerlines, the tensions are being ratcheted up. Who will blink first? Images of the China Syndrome may flash across the screens of the social media barons but who cares? An updated BBC ‘world at war’ may not eventuate due to lack of both an audience and producers. Nuclear deterrence (cf. Venables, 1985) and MAD have long been forgotten what with nuclear war – and attacks on nuclear power plants – being present threats issued by all the nuclear powers and by anyone who has the conventional firepower to attack a nuclear power plant anywhere in the world.
Venables, M (1985). The place of air power doctrine in post-war British defence planning, and its influence on the genesis and development of the theory of nuclear deterrence, 1945-1952. PhD thesis. King’s College, London.
